The immediate trigger for the early elections in Spain was last week's rejection of a bill concerning housing policy, following mass protests against the eviction of an elderly woman. Sanchez’s centre-left minority government has been under fire for several years from right-wing, republican, and populist factions due to several controversial subsidy scandals and cronyism.
Housing Market
In opinion polls, the ruling PSOE party had not been doing well recently, but the long-standing (and now renewed) protests against the neo-liberal privatization of the rental housing market have diverted attention from earlier scandals. Mostly due to the previous government led by the right-wing People’s Party (PP), most affordable rental housing in Spain has been privatized and capitalized.
Right-Wing Majority
Last Friday, parliament rejected two proposals with which the Sanchez government wanted to better protect tenants. These were drafted following large protests against high rents, housing shortages, and evictions. The proposals included measures to prevent the eviction of vulnerable tenants and to extend rental contracts.
Promotion
The conservative People’s Party (PP), the far-right Vox, and the Catalan independence party Junts voted against the measures, delivering a significant defeat to the centre-left minority government. This vote once again highlighted how difficult Sanchez's position is in parliament.
Under Pressure
Sanchez and his Socialist Party (PSOE) were already under pressure due to corruption cases and scandals. Nevertheless, the prime minister repeatedly said he wanted to serve his full term and hold elections only at the end of 2027. Several recent polls place the People’s Party (PP) at about 33 to 34 percent, while PSOE stands around 26 percent. The populist Vox scores about 18 percent, clearly higher than before.
Sanchez’s precarious position bears many similarities to those of the current heads of government in France, Italy, Poland, and Germany. Elections will be held in these four major EU countries next year, and those elections are also marked by emerging radical left and far-right parties.
Fear of Delay
As the European People's Party (EPP) Christian Democrats in the European Parliament increasingly dilute or toughen proposals depending on support from the (far-)right majority, the ‘political color’ of the majority of EU government leaders could also change next year. This could lead to uncertainties in European decision-making regarding urgently needed reforms.
The fear of delays and changes in power is one of the reasons why Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wants to ensure that definitive decisions on a large number of dossiers will be taken in Brussels and Strasbourg over the coming two to three months.