The crisis began when the government presented its budget proposal. At the center is a package of significant cuts intended to sharply tighten France’s financial course. So far, parliament refuses to approve these plans. This jeopardizes not only the budget but also the survival of the government itself.
Bayrou decided to take the initiative by requesting a confidence vote himself. According to him, this is necessary to create clarity. It is a major risk: if he loses, his cabinet cannot remain in office. For Macron and his coalition, this moment will be decisive in determining whether their political agenda stands.
President Macron installed Bayrou’s center-right coalition last year without first requesting a confidence vote in parliament. That decision led to fierce criticism. Opponents argue the government thus lacks legitimacy. The current vote is therefore also seen as making up for that missed debate at the time.
The left-wing opposition plays a key role but is deeply divided. Some parties demand new elections, while others fear that a political crisis would benefit the right-wing nationalist opposition. Because of this division, they have been unable to present a united alternative against Bayrou and Macron.
Recent opinion polls show that a majority of French people want the parliament to be dissolved and new elections to be held. A large part of the population has lost trust in the current balance of power. The vote is thus not only a political test in parliament but also a barometer of social discontent.
Macron’s popularity has meanwhile sharply declined. His emphasis on austerity is seen by many voters as one-sided and unfair. At the same time, he struggles to find support beyond his own base. This combination of unpopularity and political deadlock increases the chances that the confidence vote will end in defeat.
In the run-up to Monday, tension is palpable in Paris. Parliament does not seem willing to make concessions, while Bayrou refuses to dilute his plans. The confidence vote is therefore more than a formal procedure: it is a clash of political visions that could determine France’s course.
If the government loses the vote, a period of great uncertainty looms. Bayrou’s departure would open the door to new elections or a restructuring of the coalition. This is risky for Macron: without a stable majority, his influence could further erode. The coming days will be decisive.