Grain exports via the Black Sea have sharply declined in the past two weeks. Both Russian and Ukrainian exports are affected because ports, terminals, ships, and shipping routes have become less or unusable due to attacks. This puts increasing pressure on a key route for grain to international buyers.
Russia and Ukraine are attacking each other’s shipping and export infrastructure. Russian strikes hit Ukrainian ports and cargo ships, while Ukrainian attacks have targeted Russian ports, terminals, and grain export capacity. These disruptions limit the ability of both sides to ship large amounts of grain.
Diplomatic Efforts
Turkey is therefore attempting to restore a safe grain route across the Black Sea. Ankara has drafted a plan and is discussing it with Moscow and Kyiv. The goal is an arrangement that offers protection for commercial shipping and enables grain to be exported more securely again via the Black Sea.
Promotion
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas also urges the restoration of safe navigation. Attacks must stop and commercial vessels should be able to sail safely. Furthermore, ports and other vital infrastructure must be protected. A group of 51 countries has also expressed support for efforts to protect free navigation and critical infrastructure.
However, an agreement has not yet been reached. Diplomatic talks continue regarding the Turkish proposals, but differences remain and there is no timetable for implementation. Meanwhile, the joint Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports have sharply declined. Around 8 million tons are expected for July through September, compared with 16.2 million tons a year earlier.
Looking for Alternatives
If restrictions persist, a scenario foresees that up to 38 million tons of grain from the region could fail to reach the global market. Turkey and Egypt are already adjusting their supplies or purchases. Egypt is buying more French wheat and is also seeking deliveries from Bulgaria and Romania.
Russia and Ukraine are therefore explicitly looking towards the Baltic Sea. Ukraine is exploring exports via Baltic ports and believes it can ship up to 20 million tons of grain that way. But transport via that route costs about 100 dollars more per ton. Compensation would require 1.5 to 2 billion dollars in international support. Russia is also attempting to export more grain via northern routes.​​