The German constitution stipulates that federal expenditures may only increase within limits and that no ‘new debts’ may be incurred. For the additional military aid to Ukraine and for the SPD’s election promise of economic recovery (including raising the statutory minimum wage), a relaxation of the ‘debt brake’ is necessary—something the liberal FDP in the previous ‘traffic light coalition’ blocked for two years. At that time, the CDU/CSU opposition also opposed additional new funds for Ukraine and economic recovery.
These two major components of a 'black-red' coalition agreement must be approved this week in two extraordinary sessions of the Bundestag in its ‘old’ composition because a two-thirds majority is required to amend the constitution. CDU/CSU and SPD will no longer have this majority after next week, when the new Bundestag convenes for the first time. The currently still sitting (fallen) center-left coalition of SPD and Greens, together with CDU/CSU, currently holds a two-thirds majority.
These first two major hurdles are not yet guaranteed for the formateur and prospective Chancellor Merz, because the party board of the Greens says it sees many ambiguities and uncertainties. It is therefore not yet clear whether the Greens (who are being excluded from the new government by CDU/CSU) will help secure a majority for the proposed constitutional amendment. Also relevant is that Merz intends to defer all his other plans in the coming weeks to sixteen working groups composed of CDU and SPD members in the new Bundestag, including one for Agriculture.
Due to this approach proposed by Merz, the Greens have no guarantee that many recent proposals by their BMEL minister Cem Özdemir will reach the finish line or will disappear into a bottom drawer due to a new (CDU-?) Agriculture Minister. It also plays a role that CDU/CSU, while in opposition over the past years, voted against most agricultural proposals but has hardly submitted its own vision or proposals on the topic.
It remains completely unclear what the new black-red coalition will do with the long-delayed 'modernization and future plan' of the ZKL Borchert committee. The same applies to the ‘manure law’ that has been lingering for five years and which many CDU-led federal states only marginally cooperate with. The only subject that is already clear will be approved is the reversal of the much-discussed abolition of cheap agricultural diesel. It is also clear that the new German government will not oppose the Mercosur deal.
The chairman of the German Farmers’ Association, Joachim Rukwied, sees both positive and negative aspects in the results of the first coalition talks. The farmers’ chairman welcomes the full reinstatement of the agricultural diesel rebate. However, Rukwied criticizes the planned increase of the minimum wage to 15 euros, especially in fruit, vegetable, and wine growing.