The extreme right anti-immigration party PVV of Geert Wilders is currently losing eleven seats in parliament and stands at 26 (out of 150), while the pro-European D66 liberals gained 17 seats and also stand provisionally at 26. The difference between them is just under two thousand votes, while the results from the capital Amsterdam and the postal votes of more than a hundred thousand Dutch citizens abroad still need to be counted.
According to parliamentary custom, the largest faction in the 15-party parliament may initiate the decisive negotiations about forming a new coalition. PVV leader Wilders, whose previous extreme right four-party coalition fell this autumn, says he wants to wait and see what the final vote count will be.
It is already clear, however, that left-wing opposition parties have lost votes. Former EU Commissioner Frans Timmermans, who led a merged party of the PvdA social democrats and the Greens over the past two years, just like in 2023 failed to become the largest party, lost five of his 25 parliamentary seats, and immediately announced his resignation as party leader.
Although this makes the start of coalition negotiations uncertain, the eventual outcome (possibly only in a few months) is already clear. Virtually all political parties have stated during the election campaign that under no circumstances will they enter a coalition with Wilders’ anti-Islam party.
After having prematurely broken a coalition with the CDA and VVD more than ten years ago and recently dismantling his own ‘most right-wing cabinet ever,’ this time virtually no one wants to cooperate with him again.
Even if the PVV—possibly after a recount of all votes—emerges as the largest from the ballot box, it is already certain that Wilders’ attempt to form a government will fail and that D66 party leader Rob Jetten will then be able to form a cabinet.
In that case, D66 can form a center-right five-party coalition ‘over the right’ with CDA (Christian Democrats), VVD (conservatives), JA21 (right-wing split from disappointed PVV voters), and BBB (farmers’ party) with 79 of the 150 parliamentary seats, or a four-party coalition ‘over the left’ with CDA and VVD including GroenLinks/PvdA (86 of 150 seats).
The conservative liberal VVD appears to be able to play a key role: party leader Dilan Yesilgöz has so far insisted she does not want a coalition with what she calls the left-wing radicals of GroenLinks/PvdA.
It is known that the CDA always prefers ‘governing over the right’ for participation in government, but newcomer party leader Henri Bontenbal has called on Yesilgöz not to put up any blockades.
Also, the 34-year-old D66 leader and prospective prime minister Jetten expressed during the campaign a preference for ‘a coalition from the center.’ Moreover, he has strongly spoken out against cooperation with anti-EU and anti-climate parties. With 26 seats won, the D66 liberal democrats have never been as big as this time, calling it a historic election result.