Although global meat consumption is currently hampered by outbreaks of African swine fever in Asia, consumption is expected to increase by twelve percent over the next ten years.
Poultry meat will account for half of this increase, according to the economic OECD powers and the UN food agency FAO on Thursday.
The fight against the coronavirus pandemic is causing unprecedented uncertainty for global food supply chains. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) predict that the economic and social impacts of the pandemic will negate the positive outlooks for global agricultural production.
The coronavirus pandemic currently exerts unprecedented pressure on global agriculture and food supply chains, according to the Outlook. Low economic growth this year "could contribute to a further decline in agricultural commodity prices, at least in the short term. If the global economy recovers next year, demand for and prices of agricultural commodities are expected to gradually return to baseline levels over the coming years," it is calculated.
Two factors will stimulate meat consumption in the coming years, the report states. Low feed costs will make livestock and poultry farming more profitable. At the same time, consumers in middle-income countries are expected to use their additional income to shift their diets from staple products to higher-value products, such as meat, the Outlook says.
Meat consumption in developing countries, especially in Asia and Africa, is projected to increase five times faster than in developed countries. Currently, per capita meat consumption is low in developing countries but nearly saturated in developed countries.
Global poultry meat consumption is expected to increase to 145 million tons by 2029, with poultry projected to make up half of the extra meat consumed, according to the report. Pork consumption is expected to rise to 127 million tons over the next 10 years, accounting for 28% of the global increase in meat consumption.
Beef consumption is expected to grow to 76 million tons in 2029, contributing 16% to global growth. Sheep meat consumption will increase by 2 million tons, amounting to 6% of the additional consumption.
Although meat demand is strong in developing countries, and while global meat demand has benefited from population growth and rising incomes, potential limitations exist. "Environmental and health concerns in high-income countries are expected to lead to a shift from animal proteins to alternative sources, as well as replacement of red meat, especially beef, by poultry and fish," the OECD and FAO say.
In a chapter on meat, the Outlook noted that changing consumer preferences, such as growing interest in vegetarian or vegan diets, concerns about meat's environmental impact, and religious and cultural norms, would also have an effect.