In Germany, today marks the beginning of the ‘super-election year’ that will profoundly change German politics. On Sunday, the two states of Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate will hold regional elections, followed in July by Saxony-Anhalt.
These three regional elections are considered a preview of the major national elections in September for a new Bundestag, held simultaneously with three more state elections in Berlin, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, and Thuringia. The new Bundestag will also have to elect a new chancellor as Angela Merkel’s successor.
These elections are overshadowed by the question of whether Merkel’s CDU party can maintain its role as 'spielmacher' (key player), following the recent scandal involving corona face masks. Two CDU top officials had arranged premiums for themselves on the (government) purchase of millions of masks. They have since been dismissed/resigned. This has also weakened the position of CDU party leader Armin Laschet, the candidate to succeed Merkel.
Furthermore, opinion polls clearly indicate that in Baden-Württemberg the Greens will emerge as the largest party. That party has already provided the state premier there for several years and has built a strong reputation as a reliable governing party.
Since the 2019 European elections, the Greens and CDU have been competing for first place in voters’ favor in Germany, especially since the climate threat has become clear to most Germans. Because the Liberals, the Left, and the right-wing radical AfD also hold strong positions in parliament, the situation is increasingly emerging in many states (and also in the Bundestag!) that a coalition without the CDU can be formed.
When the polls close in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate at 6:00 p.m. on Sunday, it will be exciting. In the surveys, the Greens are the strongest parliamentary group with 33 percent, well ahead of the CDU with only 25 percent. According to the latest projections, an alliance of the Greens, SPD, and FDP would also have a relatively large majority.
Of supra-regional importance in such a ‘traffic light coalition’ (red=SPD, yellow=FDP, Greens) in Baden-Württemberg is the signal for the federal elections: if regional coalitions without the CDU are possible, this could also happen nationwide in September. A governing alliance without the left-wing SPD, composed of CDU, FDP, and the Greens (‘Jamaica coalition’), would also be possible, by the way.